NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1 Risk Assessment
In April 2024, the region of Kankakee County, Illinois, was hit by two tornadoes at the exact same time, leaving considerable damage behind and residents without electricity for a week, underscoring the importance of risk assessment. It began as a gusty shower, turned into multiple funnel clouds and spawned two tornadoes in separate towns in the county. These storms downed many tree limbs and power lines, leaving many neighborhoods without power for about five to seven days. The community’s needs had to be fully ascertained to allow for the cleanup and reduce the risk to the population’s health and wellbeing through a proper evaluation and decision-making process. Fallen power lines, carbon monoxide poisoning from generators, or injury from exposed or damaged building materials, were some of the dangers that first affected the community (National Weather Service, n.d.). In NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1, the community must be assessed for other threats in addition to these physical risks, including infectious disease, rapid resource depletion, and reduction in the sense of safety and security.
Apply Decision-Making Approach
While the Midwest isn’t known for big earthquakes or massive hurricanes that cross the coast, there are tornadoes, and 2024 was a record year for the number of confirmed tornadoes in the United States, with 1,796 confirmed tornadoes, and Illinois set a new record for the number of confirmed tornadoes in the state, with 142 tornadoes in 2024. The previous Illinois record was 125 tornadoes in 2006 (National Weather Service, n.d.). According to the United States census in 2020, the number of the population of Kankakee County is 107,502 (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). According to the 2023 American Community Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, Kankakee County has a total population of approximately 19,546 people who are 65 years of age and older
(U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). Tree limbs and downed power lines left many people without power when the two tornadoes struck. This caused the senior population of Kankakee County to be concerned about the loss of electricity, particularly for senior residents with health-related concerns that required electricity, as highlighted in NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1. Thousands of residents, both senior and non-senior, were left without electricity for several days, which caused spoilage of food items as well as requiring the sourcing of alternative sources for those residents with health needs requiring equipment or medications, emphasizing the need for risk assessment and effective preparedness planning. When a person can’t access such basic necessities as food, shelter, water, and medication, their health is at risk. Recent problems that have arisen in the SID include dehydration from lack of access to safe drinking water, overheating from lack of adequate shelter and/or air conditioning, and worsening health conditions due to lack of access to medications and lack of ability to appropriately store medications.
The Adaptive Decision-Making Model is an appropriate model for understanding individual, group, and community adaptation to high-stakes rapidly evolving situations such as tornadoes. The model represents the decision-making process that local residents and emergency management personnel use to evaluate risks to, adapt to dynamic conditions and quickly mitigate against tornadoes in Kankakee County (Costa et al., 2023). The Adaptive Decision-Making Model is based on emergency management theory and behavioral research. The concept of rapid decision-making in emergencies is highlighted, and several key elements of rapid decision-making are shown, as highlighted in NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1. The Adaptive Decision-Making Model contains several definitional elements, including but not limited to situational awareness, risk perception, health risk assessment, option evaluation, information search, implementation action, and revision. The community must be aware and recognize the
seriousness of the situation as well as the dangers involved. In this case, it would be to be aware of the intensity of the tornado and the risks it poses to the community. Once the situation is known, the community needs to identify the threat of a tornado through understanding the warnings and looking for environmental indicators to determine the severity of the tornado. One important part of being prepared for a threat is to continue to collect reliable, up-to-date information about tornadoes and the risks they pose to Kankakee County. While the community is attempting to deal with the aftermath of a tornado, there are several different courses of action that need to be taken depending on the current situation established by the tornado. Taking action in the presence of a tornado is one of the most important actions you can take. For others, the decision needs to be made using risk assessment tools to determine whether an evacuation is necessary or whether a form of shelter in place is more appropriate. The last step for the community is to get feedback and adjust as necessary based on new information gathered or changing conditions, as highlighted in NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1.
In the Adaptive Decision-Making Model, the role of flexible, informed and context-aware adaptation is emphasized as an essential component of tornado risk management in Kankakee County. It supports the idea that having a strategy is not sufficient for effective disaster management; the community must also be able to adjust it in real time, as new information comes to light (Illinois Emergency Management Agency & Office of Homeland Security, 2023). Flexible approaches are even more important to safeguard jurisdictions such as Kankakee County where climate change could lead to more frequent or severe episodes.
With the increase of tornadoes, there is always concern over the health effects that may be affected or caused by the environment, highlighting the importance of risk assessment. With the intense wind that tornadoes bring, air pollution is a big concern, particularly for those with
pre-existing respiratory conditions. One of the main issues is the particulate matter formed by building and natural debris. Similarly, if gases or particulate matter are inhaled, they can cause inflammation of the respiratory tract or penetrate the lung, which is also a cause for concern and underscores the need for risk assessment (Ayta, 2024). Another concern with tornadoes, is the rainstorms that precede or accompany the tornado which can lead to flash flooding (or standing water). Sewage backup or standing water is considered a significant health risk, as highlighted in NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1, because bacteria and toxins accumulate in the water, including debris, feces, gasoline, trash, and other chemical waste. Knowing what water safety measures to take after a flood is necessary to prevent illness (Yap & Al-Mutairi, 2022).
Apply Personalized Information
In Kankakee County, about one-fourth of our population is over 60 years of age. With this age group in mind, it is important to recognize that in the United States, 94.9% of adults 60 years old and over have at least one health condition to manage (Top 10 chronic conditions affecting older adults). In Kankakee County, 7.4% of the total population is considered to have functional limitations in carrying out activities of daily living that results in difficulties with independent living (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). Further, 11.5% of the total population of Kankakee County is living in poverty (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.), and thus health interventions for disease management and prevention and access to affordable care is critical to this population.
With the addition of this area to the Midwest, it can be subject to a number of environmental hazards, most notably tornadoes. It is thus important to deal with these issues with some of the most vulnerable members of the county’s population. These residents are at higher risk of health problems associated with the higher levels of exposure to air particulates and
stagnant waters created by the damage left behind from the tornadoes. Because of the prevalence of chronic disease in the population over 60 years of age in Kankakee County, air particulates, standing water, and/or infection can aggravate symptoms, as can the lack of access to electricity, as highlighted in NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1.
A study of Kankakee County found that low-income and older individuals in that area had increased risk for poor health with poor air quality and access to health care. These populations are at increased risk for chronic illness and respiratory disease. To overcome potential omissions and sources of bias in available risk estimates, however, more detailed information on neighborhood exposures and healthcare utilization would be needed for a more accurate health risk assessment.
Integrate Epidemiological and System-Level Aggregate Data
Kankakee County has a public health profile that combines the unique combination of natural disasters – tornadoes – and chronic diseases trends. Epidemiologically speaking, the county suffers from high expenditure of chronic disease. For example, at 11% the occurrence of diabetes is almost twice the national rate, whereas the occurrence of adult obesity at 36% is more than twice the national rate (Kankakee County Health Department, 2020). Risk factors related to lifestyle compound these health effects; tobacco smoking is a chronic problem; and 20% of the population report never engaging in leisure-time physical activity (Kankakee County Health Department, 2020).
There are many systemic issues facing access to health care in Kankakee County. The most direct measure of strain is the ratio of residents to primary care physicians, which is nearly 1,500 to 1 in our area, far higher than the national average of 1,000 to 1. In addition, nearly 12% of the population lacks health insurance to access emergency and preventative care (U.S. Census
Bureau, n.d.). All of these systemic barriers delay treatment for chronic disease and preventable ER visits.
Environmental exposures add complexity to the health care outcomes in the region. With several tornadoes occurring in Kankakee County each decade, it is considered a high-risk tornado area.
Vulnerable communities such as the elderly, poorer, and handicapped are disproportionately affected by the impact of tornadoes because they interfere with access to medications, destroy medical facilities, and cause stress on the body and mind. For example, a displacement caused by a storm could make it difficult for patients to access follow-up healthcare or to refill prescription drugs, exacerbating chronic conditions such as chronic respiratory diseases or diabetes. The combination of these epidemiologic trends and system level constraints clearly highlights the need for comprehensive disaster preparedness to incorporate public health planning. Management of chronic illness, resiliency of the health care system, and targeting of vulnerable populations during and following tornadoes are needed to improve population health outcomes in Kankakee County.
Need for Communicating Effectively with the Community
It is important to communicate with members of the community in a positive and encouraging manner during difficult times while at the same time providing information to the public about the seriousness of any potential health hazards that may exist. This includes informing the public about what steps to take to keep safe, such as avoiding standing water, damaged buildings, downed trees and power lines, and power outages. To be prepared for severe weather and for potential hazards that might arise due to a storm, it’s important to have supplies ready ahead of time. This includes having bottled water, battery-operated radios and flashlights, working generators, a way to take medications, and a safe place to shelter during a storm. And
while one can’t possibly prepare for all potential dangers, having needs met can mean life or death (Gustin, 2020).
Actually, social media has become an important means of communication, to reach a wide audience. There are a number of Facebook groups for people who live in Kankakee County. If there are any issues going on in Kankakee County, it is encouraged that members use this group to keep other members abreast of the issues. This proved especially helpful in the aftermath of the tornadoes, as people were able to ask for help with debris removal, find more resources in the community, get updates about outages and reach out to help others if they can. This provided help to the senior population which couldn’t otherwise get help due to lack of knowledge on where to seek assistance. It also supported residents in alerting others of hazards in the community, such as blocked roads or downed electric lines, demonstrating the value of risk assessment tools.
Conclusion
The tornadoes in Kankakee County in 2024 have caused some serious health and safety issues, especially for the elderly, poor, and chronically ill. These vulnerabilities were exacerbated by lack of access to health care and environmental problems such as air pollution and loss of power. As highlighted in NURS FPX 6020 Assessment 1, vulnerable populations, better communication, and disaster preparedness are all important factors to help create a more resilient and healthy community.
References
Ayta, Semih. “The effect of air pollution and climate change on sleep.” Archives of Neuropsychiatry, 2023. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.29399/npa.28523.
Costa, Renato D., et al. “A comparative study of situation awareness-based decision-making model reinforcement learning adaptive automation in evolving conditions.” IEEE Access, vol. 11, 2023, pp. 16166–82. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3245055.
Gustin, J. (2020). Tornado preparedness. Professional Safety, 65(2), 51–52.https://library.capella.edu/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/tornado preparedness/docview/2354857759/se-2
Illinois emergency management agency & office of homeland security. (2023). Illinois natural hazard mitigation plan. https://iemaohs.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/iemaohs/recovery/documents/plan-illmitigationplan.pdf
Kankakee County Health Department. (2020). Community health status assessment: Kankakee County, 2020. https://www.kankakeehealth.org/documents/about-3/community-health-needs-assessment-and-improvement-plan-1/mapp/2021-2/469-community-health-status-assessment-2/file
National weather service. (n.d.). Safety after the storm. U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved May 19, 2025, from https://www.weather.gov/oax/TipGuide
Top 10 chronic conditions affecting older adults. 30 May 2024, https://www.ncoa.org/article/the-top10-most-common-chronic-conditions-in-older-adults/.
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Age and Sex: Kankakee County, Illinois (Table S0101). American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Subject Tables, 2023. Retrieved May 26, 2025, from https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2023.S0101?q=ages+for+Kankakee+County
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Kankakee County, Illinois. data.census.gov. Retrieved May 26, 2025, from https://data.census.gov/table?q=kankakee+county
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Kankakee county, Illinois: Health. Explore census data. Retrieved May 26, 2025, from
https://data.census.gov/profile/Kankakee_County,_Illinois?g=050XX00US17091#health
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). QuickFacts: Kankakee County, Illinois. Retrieved May 26, 2025, from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/kankakeecountyillinois
Yap, Chee Kong, and Khalid Awadh Al-Mutairi. “High ecological health risks of potentially toxic metals in polluted drainage sediments: Is there a need for public concern during flash floods?” Water, vol. 14, no. 15, July 2022, p. 2316. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.3390/w14152316.